Trafalgar New Homes Ltd (formerly Combe Bank Homes) and Trafalgar Retirement+ Ltd (formerly Beaufort Homes) are  trading entities and wholly owned subsidiaries of Trafalgar Property Group Plc .
For information about Combe Bank Homes / Trafalgar New Homes Ltd: www.trafalgarnewhomes.co.uk      For information about Beaufort Homes / Trafalgar Retirement+ Ltd: www.trafalgarretirement.plus


+44 732 700 000

info@trafalgarproperty.group

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Latest Market Analysis



Strategy



Strategy Our markets Latest market analysis

The  Group benefits from availability of bank finance on competitive terms, Trafalgar New Homes Ltd having established a strong asset base and income cover over cost of borrowing, a sound track record even during the exceptionally difficult market conditions following the 2008 financial crisis, and good relationships with a range of lenders. This is an advantage over many competitors who are unable to raise bank finance at all. The Chief Executive also has cash resources available to invest as required.  The market listing of the shares may in due course be a further source of capital funding. The Group intends to capitalise upon its funding sources to acquire  and develop prime new build land sites on a favourable cost base, where opportunities arise and it is prudent to do so.

The Group is focused on its niche market of developments consisting 4 to 20 units. Competition to purchase  development sites in this unit size range is low,  as these sites are  too small for national and major regional house builders who require greater scale to cover administrative overheads, and are too large to be funded by the small jobbing builder. Within this niche market, there are opportunities to negotiate land acquisitions on favourable terms.

The Group has a small management team with fast and easy lines of communication, and key decisions can be taken quickly and positively.

The Group outsources construction work and professional services, thereby operating a minimal Head Office operation with low fixed overheads, and can thereby scale the trading activity up or down very quickly to react to changing market conditions and opportunities.

Consequent upon the acquisition of Trafalgar Retirement+ (formerly Beaufort Homes), it is intended that Trafalgar New Homes (formerly Combe Bank Homes) and Trafalgar Retirement+ will be run as distinct businesses. Trafalgar New Homes has been and will continue to develop residential properties in the South East of England and Trafalgar Retirement+ will continue to expand its land bank and development sites through the identification of suitable land for assisted living schemes, securing the land through option agreements and obtaining planning permission.

Effective implementation of this strategy will be judged by achievement of anticipated increased earnings per share.

Principal risks & uncertainties

Set out below are certain risk factors which could have an impact on the Group's long term performance.  The factors discussed below should not be regarded as a complete and comprehensive statement of all potential risks and uncertainties facing the Group.

The principal risks and uncertainties facing the Group are:

1. Direct costs may escalate and eat into gross profit margins.

2. Heravy overheads may be incurred especially when projects have been completed and before others have been commenced.

3. The Group could commit too much to future capital projects.

4. The Group’s reliance on key members of staff.

5. The market may deteriorate, damaging liquidity of the Group and future revenues.

The Group considers that it mitigates these risks with the following policies and actions:

1. The Group affords its bankers and other lenders a strong level of asset and income cover and maintains good relationships with a range of funding sources from which it is able to secure finance on favourable terms.

2. Direct costs including construction costs are outsourced on a fixed price contract basis, thereby passing on to the contractor all risk of development cost overspend, including from increased material, labour or other costs.

3. Most other professional services are also outsourced, thus providing a known fixed cost before any project is taken forward and avoiding the risk that can arise in employing in-house professionals of a high unproductive overhead at times when activity is slack.

4. Land buying decisions are taken at board level, after careful research by the Directors personally, who have substantial experience of the house building industry, potential construction issues and the local market.

The Group focuses on a niche market sector of new home developments in the range of 4 to 20 units.  Within this unit size, competition to purchase development sites from land buyers is relatively weak, as this size is unattractive to major national and regional house builders who require a larger scale to justify their administration and overheads, whilst being too many units for the jobbing builder to finance or undertake as a project.  Within this market, there are opportunities to negotiate land acquisitions on favourable terms.  Many competitors who also focus on this niche have yet to recapitalise and are unable to raise finance.

5. The Group has a rigorous corporate governance policy appropriate for a publicly quoted company now listed on AIM.

6. Many of the activities are outsourced and each of the Directors is fully aware of the activities of all members of staff enabling adequate cover when needed.

Trafalgar New Homes strategy

Trafalgar New Homes will consider development opportunities in its chosen area of operation, to further its residential development activity.

Demand for new housing in the South East remains strong and continues to benefit from the Government’s Help to Buy scheme. Whilst the uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU may impact parts of the market, the Directors believe that the pressure to increase housing stock in the southeast of England is likely to open up opportunities to bring strategic land through the planning process. The Directors believe that areas without an up to date local plan or with insufficient land supply offer the greatest potential. With the support of the range of measures to encourage house building set out in the recent Government budget, the Company is seeking to take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves.

Trafalgar Retirement+ strategy

Of the development sites that Trafalgar Retirement+ has secured under option and subject to planning, a planning application has been submitted on one site for residential redevelopment, and a ‘pre-app’ process has been started for assisted living schemes for its proposed two larger sites, prior to the submission of formal planning applications. Further sites are under consideration, with negotiations ongoing with property owners to enter into option agreements.

Trafalgar Retirement+ management has more than 50 years experience in land assembly, housing developments, construction and the growing assisted living/extra care market. The Enlarged Group will specialise in the identification of suitable sites within the M25 corridor and land opportunities in the affluent towns and villages of the South East of England.

The Enlarged Group has a dedicated land team to identify further suitable sites, approach land owners and agree a nominal option fee with each owner. The Enlarged Group will then apply for planning and, when successful and if appropriate, will exercise its option.

Typically, each assisted living scheme is expected to consist of 50-80 one and two-bedroom apartments, close to shops, transport and local amenities. The approach to securing the land through option agreements for development aims to minimise any potential financial and other risks to the Enlarged Group if market conditions falter.

The Directors believe the Enlarged Group will have the capacity within its existing management and network to significantly increase its development pipeline of assisted living schemes and grow the Company organically. This will not, however, preclude the Enlarged Group accelerating profitability by selective acquisitions that would integrate with, and add significant value to, the long-term aspirations of the Enlarged Group.

Forward options are held on sites at Leatherhead and Send with planning lodged for appeal. It is the intention to develop the Leatherhead and Send sites once the favourable outcome of planning appeal is known.











Our markets



Market Dynamics in the South East

The decision to exit the European Union at the end of June 2016 was unprecedented. It led to an immediate drop in the value of sterling and a sell-off in house building stocks. Following the initial market panic the stock market has rebounded in anticipation of improved macro-economic conditions. However, it is too soon to predict the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK homes market.

The market fundamentals remain strong with robust demand for homes as a result of chronic undersupply. A recent report by the Resolution Foundation showed that home ownership in the UK had dropped to its lowest levels in 30 years, with outer London seeing the second biggest drop of 13.5% to just under 58%. We strongly believe that as long as planning restrictions remain obstructive there will continue to be a considerable shortage of housing supply in the South East.

These fundamentals provide attractive opportunities for house builders with the right strategic focus and access to finance. We are confident that our focus on traditional housing for a wide range of buyers in the South East, along with the price of our current housing stock, will keep sale prices stable and we will continue to attract customers. The recent increases in Stamp Duty Tax are mainly applicable to the luxury end of the market and do not adversely affect our operations. The Group remains committed to building new homes in the South East that are in such high demand.

Central London is a market largely divorced from the rest of the UK, in that it operates as a global city and attracts global funds. Pre-credit crunch the Central London market was strongly driven by City bonuses, now overseas equity sources are more important. Price differentials between Central London and the country have never been greater, giving unprecedented opportunities for buyers selling in London to release equity and/or enlarge their accommodation in the countryside. The prime region for such movement of equity out of London is to the South East, especially locations with fast access to central London (eg Sevenoaks).



Five Year Housing market forecast:


Forecast change

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

 5 years to 2028

Mainstream House Prices UK

+2.5 %

 +3.5 %

+4.5 %

+5 %

+4.5 %

+21.6 %

Mainstream House Prices South East

+1.5 %

 +3 %

+4.5 %

+4.5 %

+3.5 %

+18.2 %

Mainstream rental values
(forecast data February 2023)

6 %

+3.5 %

+ 3%

+ 2.5%

+2 %

+ 18.1 %

Housing transactions

1.05m

1.14m

1.16m

1.16m

1.16m

n/a

Forecast data from Savills Research. May 2024. Trafalgar New Homes Plc takes no responsibility to prospective investors for its assessment of future market trends. Investors should make their own assessment of market prospects taking their own independent advice.


Links to latest market commentary for London and the South East

Savills Research Update - Revised mainstream house price forecasts 2024 - 2028
Falls in the cost of debt and an improving economic outlook have created more capacity for house price growth.

Savills Research - Revised mainstream house price forecasts 2024-2028


Savills Research Update - UK Residential, Spring/Summer 2024
After what feels like a long winter, we’re starting to see the housing market warm up again as we enter the most popular time of year to buy and sell a home.

Savills Research - Residential Spring/Summer 2024


Savills Research Update - March, 2024
the biggest uptick in activity was in the £300,000 to £5000,000 price band, where activity levels in the month were 33% up on the same time last year, while those above £1m rose by 27%. However, the same data suggests that the market remains price sensitive, with the number of changes in the asking price of property on the market 56% above the 2017-2019 norm.

Savills Research - Residential Outlook, March 2024


Savills Research Update - February, 2024
the housing market seems to have got off to a more positive start in 2024 as buyers have taken confidence in falling levels of inflation and strong competition in the mortgage markets.

Savills Research - Residential Outlook February 2024


Savills Research - UK Cross Sector Outlook, 2024
With inflation heading back towards the Bank of England target of 2% and more stability in the mortgage markets, we expect to see the primary sources of financial disturbance ease back over the course of 2024 as the narrative turns to when we might start to see interest rates cut.

Savills Research - UK Cross Sector Outlook 2024


Savills Research - Residential Research update - December 2023
2023 has been a year which, from the perspective of the housing market, has been dominated by the effect of elevated mortgage rates.

Savills Research - Residential Research update - December 2023


Savills Research - Residential Research update - November 2023
Somewhat surprisingly, both Nationwide and Halifax main stream house price indices showed a return to month on month house price growth in October.

Savills Research - Residential Research update - November 2023


Savills Research - Regional Performance - Cycles and inflection points - November 2023
Once the bank of England begins to cut base rates in the second half of 2024, we expect affordability to ease with every region seeing improving conditions compared to 2023.

Savills Research - Regional Performance - Cycles and inflection points - November 2023


Savills Research - New Homes: which buyers remain active and why do they chose new build?
Key buyer groups still active despite market headwinds.

Savills Research - New Homes: September 2023


Savills Research - Residential research update, September 2023

The Nationwide index suggests prices have fallen by an average of 5.4% inn nominal terms since their peak a year ago, though imporantly the adjustment has been much greater on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Savills Research - Residential Research Update


Savills Research - Understand the Renters Reform changes

The Government has a long term vision for creating a fairer private rented sector.

Understand the Renters Reform changes


Savills Research - Three challenges facing the private landlord

Financial and regulatory pressures will drive a wedge between smaller, more indebted landlords and larger investors with less exposure to mortgage debt, who are better placed to capitalise on future rental growth.

Savills Research - Three challenges facing the private landlord





















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